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La Niña strengthens while IOD eases
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and the updated Climate Model Summary released today by the BoM point to indications that the tropical Pacific Ocean is nudging closer to La Niña thresholds. Sea surface temperatures have cooled over the past fortnight dropping the latest weekly NINO3.4 (central tropical Pacific) value to -0.6°, the lowest since February 2012 at the end of the 2010-12 La Niña. The majority of international climate models indicate that neutral levels will persist through to the end of this summer, but continued warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures north and east of Australia also indicate some La Niña-like impacts are possible even if a full La Niña doesn't develop.
Over in the west, negative Indian Ocean Dipole values have eased over the past fortnight, mostly due to ocean warming off Africa. However, the Bureau says that "Waters off Indonesia remain very warm, and were second warmest on record for September. Models indicate the IOD will return to neutral levels by the end of spring." That would result in the influence of the IOD on Australian rainfall possibly lessening in the coming months.
Mackay Radar goes full-time
Mackay Radar, which covers rainfall in a large slice of the QLD Central Coast, has become a dedicated weather watch radar. Previously, it was in use for upper air wind measurement for about two in every six hours, but the installation of an automatic wind profiler at Mackay Turf Club now provides real-time upper wind measurements for pilots and forecasters, freeing up the radar for full-time rain observation. It will be good news for the many sugar plantation, mining and marine users in this busy area.
The radar gives coverage out to about Home Hill to the NW, Yeppoon to the SE and Clermont to the SW, though because of the angle of its beam it usually only covers coastal showers as far as Bowen to St Lawrence. Bureau of Meteorogy Acting Queensland Regional Director Bruce Gunn said, "These improvements in radar coverage have been prioritised for delivery ahead of the northern
wet season, when there is an increased risk of thunderstorms and tropical cyclone activity in Queensland."
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