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|Tuesday 26 September 2017
The heatwaves keep coming
The September heatwave that brought record-setting temperatures to most of VIC, NSW and southern QLD between last Saturday 23 and Monday 25 September will be described in more detail here in the next few days.
It was a remarkable event, setting new state September maximum temperature records for both VIC and NSW. Even more remarkable was the extent of the heat. You can see in this map showing departures from normal maximum temperatures that the BoM ran out of colours on the temperature scale to show just how abnormal the heat was. The scale finishes at 12°, but the greatest departure from normal for the day was a massive 19.9° above average at Point Hicks Lighthouse in eastern VIC.
The next two days this week, Wednesday and Thursday, look set to break even more September heat records, though across a smaller area of northern NSW and southern QLD. Some of these are likely to be new records set just last weekend, including possibly another new state record for NSW and a new September national record in QLD. [ABC]
The temperatures to watch for? The current NSW state record for September is 40.5° set at Wilcannia Airport last Saturday, 23 September, and the QLD state record is 42.4 set at Birdsville on 22 September 2003. The current national September record is 43.1 set at West Roebuck WA on 27 September 2003. In NSW tomorrow, Wednesday, 41° is the forecast maximum for Tibooburra, Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett. In QLD tomorrow, 43° is the top temp forecast for Birdsville with 42 forecast for all locations in the state's southwest. That heat moves east to the coast on Thursday where records in the Brisbane area, many set last Sunday, are under threat.
I won't even mention record hot nights...
Pacific temps cooling, but not quite enough for La Niña
The BoM's ENSO Wrap-Up, issued today, says that although both sea surface and sub-surface temperatures have cooled in the central and eastern Pacific, and are expected to continue to do so, it will not be enough "to be classified as a La Niña event."
The Indian Ocean Dipole continues neutral, though there is a hint that it will become positive this season. If there is a late season positive IOD, it will be short-lived, as positive IOD events typically decay by December.
The full ENSO Wrap-Up can be found here.