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 The darkness of approaching night is advancing from the right in this visible image of Category 5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut at 1720AEST Friday 14th. The northern Philippines island of Luzon, on which Manila is located bottom left, will see the arrival of Mangkhut around sunrise on Saturday, when it crosses the NE coast before moving west and parallel to the north coast through the day. JMA Himawari 8 processed by Weatherzone. |
 2350AEST Super Typhoon Mangkhut close to landfall. While US media presence has seen Florence grabbing most of the headlines, Typhoon Mangkhut is by far the more powerful and dangerous cyclone, and will be landing on the eastern shores of Luzon, the main northern island of the Philippines, early Saturday 15th morning AEST. The image at left shows the sun setting on Friday on the huge eye of the cyclone, which I estimate as 65km in diameter, as it churns relentlessly towards the northern tip of Luzon. The Philippine capital, Manila, is in the bottom left of the image.
This morning, NASA posted this visible light image of Mangkhut at sunrise, while this infrared image of the typhoon, showing its progress in the 8 hours up to sunrise, clearly shows its dramatic and perfectly-formed eye.
Major press today have covered preparations in the Philippines and the arrival of cyclonic weather. Among the stories are these from AFP, Reuters and Al Jazeera. Apart from winds gusting to 250km/h and torrential rain, a storm surge "that could reach four storeys high" is expected in places, a spokesman for local civil defence authorities, Michael Conag, told AFP. He added this combination "could destroy houses, especially the makeshift houses. Those are the ones most common in coastal areas."
Press estimates of the number of people at risk vary wildly, from 4 million in Fairfax Media to 10 million, sourced to "authorities", in Al Jazeera. The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) puts the exposed population* at a much higher 58.6 million, but that includes all countries touched by the typhoon.
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| Hurricane Florence at 2302AEST Friday 14th , about two hours after it made landfall just east of Wilmington, North Carolina. It is tracking WSW, parallel to the coast before turning to the W. Movement is expected to continue very slowly, before it turns N. NWS |
2330AEST Florence makes landfall. Hurricane Florence made landfall at 2115AEST Friday (0715 Friday local time) at Wrightsville Beach, a suburb of Wilmington, North Carolina. Wilmington's population is 120,000. The barometer fell to 958hPa at Wrightsville Beach as the Category 1 hurricane passed. Reuters noted this in this 2300AEST article, saying that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated sustained winds near the centre were 150km/h. 440,000 properties were without power.
NWS cautions that, despite its low category rating, Florence's sheer size and slow movement will produce "feet of rain with inland flooding and up to 13 feet of storm surge". As of now, National Weather Service (NWS) radar estimates that 100 to 300mm of rain had fallen so far in coastal areas from the South Carolina border north to Cape Hatteras. Bands of heavy rain are pushing inland and have now reached about 200km towards the Appalachian Mountains in the west of the state.
1600AEST Hurricane Florence close to landfall. A weakened yet still dangerous Hurricane Florence is edging very close to landfall on the southern North Carolina coast just north of Wilmington, as shown by the Newport/Moorehead radar. On the same radar, if you choose Storm Total, under Rainfall, you will see that radar-derived rainfall totals have already hit 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150mm) along the coast NE from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras, with over 10 inches (250mm) in places. The rain is pushing steadily inland toward the Appalachian Mountains to the NW. For a broader view, use the loop under Long Range Images.
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