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 The BoM's Climate Outlook for October to December offers little relief from above normal daytime temperatures (top) and generally dry conditions (bottom) across the nation, although the areas in white are likely to see 3-month rainfall fairly close to average. BoM. |
 Thu 27 Sep 2018 Bureau issues dismal outlook for next three months. The Bureau's Climate Outlook for the three months from October to December issued today brings little hope of relief from above average temperatures and below average rainfall for much of the country.
The solid red covering most of Australia at left indicates that the Bureau's climate forecasting model gives an unusually high 80% chance of average maximum temperatures exceeding the median across the period. It's rare to see such a broad area given such a high probability. Nights are also forecast to be warmer than average, although coastal areas of the NT, QLD, western VIC and southeastern SA will be closer to average.
The rainfall outlook is not so dramatically bad, although the large orange to brown areas of the map have moderate to high chances of below normal rainfall. There are, however, large areas of white, especially in NSW and across the north of the country, where the outlook for rainfall is close to normal.
The Bureau retains the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) at neutral, but says that "current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring."
Full details are in the Climate Outlook*, the Outlook video*, and a briefer archived version which is here.
 Thu 27 Sep 2018 First southern hemisphere tropical cyclone named over a month before the season starts. The first tropical cyclone this season was named Liua by the Fiji Meteorological Service this morning 27th. Andrew Miskelly's animation of Himawari-8's visible imagery soon after daylight this morning EST shows the cyclone getting its act together just south of the Solomon Islands. The normal southern cyclone season runs from November to April, but sea surface temperatures in the area of 28 to 30°, over a degree above normal, are pushing the season forward. Liua is currently at Category 1, which it is expected to maintain as it moves south then west, weakening below cyclone strength on Saturday and posing no threat to Australia.
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